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Guessing game for Karl

Coach never sure what he'll get from inconsistent team

Aaron J. Lopez, Rocky Mountain News

Published March 30, 2007 at midnight

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Count the Nuggets among the millions of victims of identity theft. Their case, though, might be self-inflicted.

Following annual tradition, they vowed in September to build their identity around forward Carmelo Anthony and the fast break.

Anthony altered the team's profile when he and J.R. Smith brawled with the New York Knicks on Dec. 16, earning respective 15- and 10-game suspensions.

The acquisition of eight-time All-Star Allen Iverson on Dec. 19 gave the Nuggets an exciting new identity, but the subsequent results on the court have not helped define Denver as a pretender or contender.

At 35-35, the Nuggets are a schizophrenic bunch capable of inspired performances one night and lamentable ones the next. Their one identifiable trait is they has no identifiable trait.

"For whatever reason, we're not very consistent," forward Eduardo Najera said. "We know what we've got to do to win games, but some nights, we just come out flat and careless. We lack concentration, and that's when we get in trouble."

The past two weeks serve as a perfect example of how good and how bad the Nuggets can be.

They pasted the Phoenix Suns by 24 points on March 17 and lost by 27 points at Toronto six days later.

They played with confidence in back-to-back road games against Eastern Conference heavyweights Cleveland and Detroit earlier this week, then looked disinterested in a three- point loss to lottery-bound Seattle at home Wednesday.

"After Cleveland (a 12-point win), I was feeling good; after Detroit (a bizarre overtime loss), I was feeling OK," coach George Karl said Thursday. "Today, I feel awful."

Heading into the final 12 games of the regular season, the players and coaches realize defense and unselfish play - not necessarily a frenetic pace - hold the key to success, yet execution of that seemingly simple game plan remains tricky on a consistent basis.

Which team will show up tonight when the Nuggets open a three-game trip against the Suns? It is a question Karl asks himself every morning when he rises from another restless night.

"For 5 minutes, we can be a great defensive team, and for 5 minutes (we) can look like we've never practiced," Karl said. "It's going to be a roller coaster the next 12 games."

Despite their consistent inconsistency, the Nuggets are not in immediate postseason peril.

They still have a chance to catch the Los Angeles Lakers for sixth place in the Western Conference, and are 1 1/2 games ahead of the eighth-place Los Angeles Clippers.

With a 2 1/2game edge on ninth-place Golden State, it would take a moderate meltdown for the Nuggets to miss the playoffs.

Karl and his players draw optimism from having been able to maintain their playoff standing despite the chaos created by injuries, suspensions and trades.

"Other teams might have given up," Najera said. "Somehow, I don't know how we did it, but we're actually still in pretty good position to make some noise. We have a talented team that can win games in the playoffs."

The Nuggets have three weeks to solve their identity crisis and convince outside observers they are a legitimate threat to upset Western Conference front-runners Dallas, Phoenix or San Antonio. The Nuggets are 1-6 against those three teams this season.

"The big thing from here on in is make sure you win enough games to get in the playoffs and play playoff-type basketball where you're competitive every game so you go into the playoffs with a little momentum," Nuggets assistant Doug Moe said.

"If we make it to the playoffs, we're going to be playing either Phoenix or Dallas or San Antonio. To have any chance at all, you've got to be at the very, very, very top of your game. We're not at the top of our game as far as completing games. We're playing very good, but we're not winning games we should win."

Forced to juggling lineups and substitution patterns throughout the season, Karl has settled on a rotation that could help create more consistency down the stretch.

When Najera is healthy, the Nuggets generally go eight players deep, with Smith and Linas Kleiza being the two other primary substitutes off the bench.

"Most guys are on a pretty short leash," Karl said. "I like playing more people. I think they know that, but I think they've abused that privileged, so I'm going the other way."

Given the Nuggets' unpredictability, it's hard to say whether Karl's approach will translate into a winning formula.

At this point, he will take his chances and embrace a fresh start should the Nuggets get to the postseason.

"In a very strange way, we're in a good place that we can still accomplish a good season," he said. "Has there been frustration and disappointment? Hell, yeah. There's been a lot of it, but I'm optimistic. Our luck and our karma can very quickly swing back in a good place."

Nuggets at Suns

• When: 8 MDT tonight.

• Where: US Airways Center, Phoenix.

• TV/radio: Altitude; KKFN-AM (950).

• Probable starting lineups

Denver (35-35) Pos. Ht. Pts.

15 Carmelo Anthony F 6-8 29.0

31 Nene F 6-11 11.5

23 Marcus Camby C 6-11 11.2

3 Allen Iverson G 6-0 26.9

25 Steve Blake G 6-3 6.1

Coach: George Karl

Phoenix (53-18) Pos. Ht. Pts.

3 Boris Diaw F 6-8 9.9

31 Shawn Marion F 6-7 17.2

32 A. Stoudemire C 6-11 20.7

29 Raja Bell G 6-5 14.7

13 Steve Nash G 6-3 18.8

Coach: Mike D'Antoni

• Injuries: Denver - F Kenyon Martin (right knee surgery) is out; Iverson (bruised left elbow) and F Eduardo Najera (bruised left knee) are probable. Phoenix - None reported.

• Notes: Najera, who has missed three games in a row, said Thursday he plans to play tonight. . . . Iverson was limited in practice, but he is expected to be in the lineup. . . . Because the Nuggets and Suns play only three times, this is Denver's only appearance in Phoenix during the regular season. If the current Western Conference playoff seeds remain intact, the No. 7 Nuggets will return to Phoenix for at least two first-round playoff games in April. . . . Led by Iverson's 44 points and 15 assists, the Nuggets walloped the Suns 131-107 in Denver on March 17. "It was one of our better games, there's no question," Karl said. "But Phoenix has the same film and there are adjustments in the game of basketball." . . . The Nuggets are 16-17 on the road and need three wins in their final eight to tie the franchise mark set in 1987-88. . . . . . . Phoenix's 29-7 home record is second best, trailing Dallas (32-4).