Yankees, Mets maneuver for another Subway Series

John Shea, San Francisco Chronicle

Published September 19, 2006 at midnight

Text size

More Colorado Rockies

The Detroit Tigers’ hot start under Jim Leyland. The Houston Astros’ re-signing of Roger Clemens. The Chicago Cubs’ seemingly imminent firing of Dusty Baker. The Los Angeles Dodgers’ deadline-beating trades by Ned Colletti. The Boston Red Sox’s meltdown under Terry Francona. The Florida Marlins’ unlikely streak led by Joe Girardi. The Atlanta Braves’ end to a long run with Bobby Cox.

They’re all nice vignettes, headline-grabbers at one time or another. Over a six-month season, every team has to get some level of decent play, good or bad. But with two weeks to go, now that it matters, look who’s leading the pack in each league.

In both cases, the team with the highest payroll that plays in the biggest media market and flexes its muscles the most is the team with the best record and seems best-suited to win the pennant. Twenty-three weeks in, it comes down to the New York Yankees and New York Mets as World Series favorites, a New York-New York finale, as in 2000, but more evenly matched this time.

Earlier in the season, this didn’t appear likely. The Yankees trailed the Red Sox by three games at the All-Star break when Alex Rodriguez proclaimed, "The wild card will not come out of the East. Period." A curious statement, considering the wild card came out of the East the previous three years and eight times in its 11-year history.

Realizing the newfound strength of the American League Central, Rodriguez correctly predicted that only the division winner would represent the East, but A-Rod wasn’t about to predict the five-game sweep at Fenway Park last month that put the Yankees 6 1/2 games ahead and provided impetus for the 9 1/2-game lead they had entering Monday’s games.

The Mets had their own concerns. Three weeks ago, the blood clot detected in Tom Glavine’s left shoulder seemed to necessitate surgery and end his season, if not his career, and that quickly halted World Series talk, especially with Pedro Martinez shelved with a calf injury.

But when Glavine’s circulatory condition was deemed not serious, Mets fans breathed easier. And Martinez, even before he struggled during his return to the mound Friday for the first time in a month, heard from manager Willie Randolph that he’d pitch Game 1 of the playoffs if healthy. With a Martinez-Glavine 1-2 punch, the Mets, 13 1/2 games ahead in first place, will be favored in a not-so-tough National League playoff pool, no matter which team wins the NL West and wild card.

Not only do the Mets have the second-lowest ERA in the league, they’ve scored the most runs. Carlos Beltran, with 40-plus homers, 120-plus RBIs, was an MVP candidate before the race turned into a two-man heat between Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard, but he’ll still get love on the ballot, which has space for 10 names, as will teammates Jose Reyes and David Wright — the best left side of an infield ... until you remember who’s playing those positions in the Bronx.

The Mets’ lineup is deep with Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca and newcomer Shawn Green, along with Cliff Floyd and Jose Valentin, and the playoff rotation is three-strong, with Orlando Hernandez following Martinez and Glavine. The No. 4 guy is 14-game winner Steve Trachsel, if he recovers from his recent slump, and the closer is Billy Wagner with 38 saves. It’s a huge upgrade from the days of Art Howe, just two short seasons ago.

As for the Yankees, the one playoff team they might have feared was the Minnesota Twins, but that was before Francisco Liriano was lost for the season. With lefties Johan Santana and Liriano facing a lineup of lefty swingers Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu and Robinson Cano, the Twins would have had high hopes. Santana might not be enough.

But like the Mets, who are only as good as the health of Martinez and Glavine, the Yankees will heavily rely on Mariano Rivera, 36, who hasn’t pitched since Aug. 31 because of a forearm strain and may not pitch again until the playoffs, according to manager Joe Torre, whose rotation includes a 43-year-old (Randy Johnson) and a 37-year-old (Mike Mussina), and thank goodness for 17-game winner Chien-Ming Wang.

It helps that the lineup is comparable to the best in history, not just because of the numbers but because of how methodically hitters work counts. The Yankees have a hard-to-believe .364 on-base percentage, and 852 runs or 5.7 per game, a run-per-game more than the Oakland A’s.

Making matters worse for opponents, the Yankees added Abreu, watched Matsui complete his rehab from a broken left wrist with a four-hit game and await the return of Gary Sheffield, who’s coming off left wrist surgery. Through it all, the MVP favorite is Derek Jeter, who excelled with Matsui and Sheffield sidelined and A-Rod going through the worst stretch of his career, playing as if he had a gaping hole in his bat, glove and psyche.

The Mets are catching up with the Yankees, and this will be the first time both teams win a division in the same year. The 2000 Subway Series was made possible after the Mets won the wild card, and they were a far inferior team. It’s more even now, each team the class of its respective league.

Subscribe to the Rocky Mountain News