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Make-or-break day in Iowa for long-shot GOP contenders

M.E. Sprengelmeyer, Rocky Mountain News

Published August 11, 2007 at midnight

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AMES, Iowa - For some, it will be a festival of heartbreak.

Snag a ticket to the Iowa Republican Party's "nonbinding" straw poll today and you can gorge yourself on free food, watch singers and political tap-dancers, and meet famous and powerful people.

Then, at the end of the night, kick back and watch some of those big egos get crushed.

For long-shot Republican presidential contenders, tonight is the night they've been imagining for months now - the one in which they will shock the political world and vault into the vaunted top tier of the GOP presidential contest. Or not.

Year of uncertainty

In the past, the Iowa straw poll results have been a fairly accurate predictor of which candidates will finish first or second at the next winter's caucuses - which act as the official kickoff of the presidential primary season.

This year, the pundits aren't so sure that the pattern will hold form.

Front-runner Rudy Giuliani announced this summer that he wouldn't lift a finger to compete in the straw poll. It's too expensive and he said he'd spend his money elsewhere. Sen. John McCain of Arizona quickly followed suit.

Meanwhile, another big name has yet to officially enter the race for the White House: former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.

The Iowa Republican Party - upset that some big names would not be contributing to their biggest, quadrennial fundraiser - decided to include Giuliani, McCain and Thompson on the straw poll ballot anyway.

Now, two big questions going into today's poll are:

• How big a showing will any of those three nonparticipants get?

• If some other candidates finish lower than the folks who didn't compete, how will they justify continuing their campaigns?

Battle for turnout

Aside from the ideological battles raging in the crowded Republican field, there's also a fierce battle for turnout. Romney and Brownback reportedly have chartered more than 100 buses to haul in their supporters. Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson - a fixture in Iowa for more than a year - has about 75. Tancredo's fleet is somewhere in the double digits.

No word on how many of these buses will be running on Iowa-made corn ethanol.

Iowa 'incentives'

• Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas has ordered enough grub to feed a small army. Huckabee will serve watermelons from his hometown of Hope, Ark., and he will jam on stage with his band, Capitol Offense.

• Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado will host an "Iowa Idol" talent competition featuring "celebrity judges." He also has been offering an all-expenses-paid trip to Washington for anyone who brings 25 friends to the straw poll.

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