Study: Arctic sea ice melting much faster
Todd Hartman, Rocky Mountain News
Published May 1, 2007 at midnight
Arctic sea ice is melting faster than earlier projections and could disappear far sooner than previously thought, according to a study to be published today.
The new findings, by a team of Boulder-based scientists, show that the melting of sea ice in the Arctic is moving as much as 30 years ahead of what was predicted by 18 computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to analyze the effects of global warming.
The study says that computer models appear to be underestimating the effects of greenhouse gases.
"The transition to a new Arctic (ice-free) state is more likely to occur well within this century," earlier than the 2050 to 2100 timetable suggested by standard computer models.
The paper's lead author, Julienne Stroeve, called the ramifications of the findings "scary" because computer climate models "are still failing to capture what the observations are showing."
Many scientists believe the Arctic is increasingly sensitive to global warming as more ice melts. That's because ice reflects sunlight back into space and provides a cooling effect. In contrast, darker areas of open ocean, which are expanding, absorb sunlight and raise temperatures.
Researchers examined computer forecasts that predicted an average loss of ice cover of 2.5 percent per decade between 1953 and 2006. Then, they compared that with newly available historical and satellite data that shows the ice cover actually declined at 7.8 percent per decade during the same time frame.
Scientists contributing to the research are affiliated with the University of Colorado's Snow and Ice Data Center and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
The paper, Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast? is slated for publication today in the online edition of Geophysical Research Letters.
The climate models might be flawed on several fronts, scientists said, including a failure to understand the full impact of greenhouse gases, overestimating the thickness of sea ice and shortcomings in capturing air and ocean patterns that move heat to the polar regions.
hartmant@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-5048
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