Whisper it: The drought is over

Despite brimming reservoirs, officials take cautious view

Todd Hartman, Rocky Mountain News

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Colorado's drought is over, but still . . .

Water officials gathered at a monthly state water supply meeting Wednesday were loathe to actually say those words, even as they conceded a key drought index shows - for the first time since 2002 - that it's true.

Instead, water watchers spent much of the meeting urging caution despite a bright outlook for Front Range supplies.

"It's a more complex picture than, 'Things look really good,' " said Jack Byers, deputy state engineer.

Even so, compared with most recent years, some things do look good:

• Snowpack began to slip away fast during a warm March, but the melt-off has slowed dramatically during a cool, stormy April. And forecasters predict the rest of April and part of May will bring more storms, reducing water demand from homeowners and farmers.

• Reservoirs across the state are in good shape. An official with Denver Water, serving 1.2 million residents in the metro area, said the utility expects all its reservoirs to fill this spring. Statewide, reservoir levels are at 103 percent of their average level.

• While high streamflows in March had some worried, state climatologist Nolan Doesken noted that it beats the alternative: snow evaporating or getting sucked into parched soils. The bulging streams mean soil moisture is good and reservoirs can catch the runoff, he said.

• A key drought index shows for the first time since 2002 that no fraction of Colorado meets the criteria - based on precipitation levels over four years - for "long-term" drought.

San Juan snowpack fades

Despite all the good news, experts at the meeting raised numerous warning flags, including predictions that the fast-fading snowpack in the San Juan Mountains in southwest Colorado could quickly reintroduce drought conditions there.

The region benefited from a bounty of snow early in the "water year" that begins in October, but the moisture has plummeted since then.

Indeed, federal forecasts using numerous indicators predict drought conditions are likely for southwestern Colorado through June. That, in turn, has fanned early predictions of a potentially tough wildfire season for the region.

Not all the news is good on the Front Range either.

Aurora, struggling with water supplies since the 2002 drought, has reservoirs at a combined level of 66 percent of average, low enough to likely trigger watering restrictions this summer.

But still, the numbers are better than last year at this time, when the city's reservoirs were at only 60 percent of average.

And water demand could skyrocket along the Front Range this summer, as forecasters foresee higher than normal temperatures and below average precipitation in June, July and August.

"The summer forecast is not wet for us," said Klaus Wolter, a climatologist at the University of Colorado.

And another reminder that the good news might only be temporary: In the past 10 years, only once has statewide snowpack on April 1 been above 100 percent of the 30-year average, said Mike Gillespie of the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

This year, it was more of the same, with April 1 snowpack at 75 percent of average. As of Wednesday, though, a wet month so far had pushed statewide snowpack back up a bit - to 76 percent.

Watering limits

The outlook for the metro area's two largest water providers:

• Aurora: City Council set to consider restrictions Monday. The decision originally set for April 9 was postponed.

• Denver Water: Regular summer rules apply, including watering no more than three days a week and no watering between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m.

hartmant@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-5048