Snowpack melting quickly

Front Range likely OK, but agriculture, fire peril cause concerns

Todd Hartman, Rocky Mountain News

Published March 16, 2007 at midnight

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A balmy March across Colorado is quickly melting the state's snowpack, but brimming reservoirs and heavy snow earlier in the winter should keep the Front Range out of water trouble, forecasters said Thursday.

If the dry spell continues through March and April, however, it could bolster the fire danger and create problems for agriculture, they said.

On the heels of T-shirt temperatures, the statewide snowpack had fallen to 85 percent of average Thursday, "about as low as it's been all season," said Mike Gillespie, snow survey supervisor for the federal Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Worst off is southwestern Colorado, where snowpack levels in the San Juan River Basin had fallen to 69 percent. And a federal forecast issued Thursday said drought conditions in the southwestern United States could spread to western Colorado through June.

But Klaus Wolter, a University of Colorado climatologist, also noted several promising factors: Most of the rapid snowmelt is below 8,500 feet; snow is melting instead of evaporating and "blowing to Kansas" as has occurred in years past; and he foresees a storm track toward the end of March.

"You could argue (the snow) is melting a bit early, but a lot of these lower elevations usually don't even have snow," Wolter said.

Still, Wolter said, water managers usually prefer to see snowpack build in March, and "that's not happening this year."

January, February and March usually contribute about 20 percent apiece to the state's snowpack, Gillespie said. But halfway through, March is shaping up to be a stinker.

"In some parts of the state it's been almost a flat line as far as snowpack accumulation," Gillespie said. "To miss out on the first half (of the month) really puts us behind the curve."

More snow could come closer to the end of the month, he said, but most will likely fall on the eastern half of the state.

"For mountain snowpack, there's not a whole lot of hope in sight," he said.

Dry springs have struck Colorado in the past, such as in the record drought year of 2002. But that spring, the snowpack was far less at this point, around 50 percent, and reservoirs were far lower entering the melting season.

What's clear to Colorado weather watchers is how much the state benefited from the blizzards that buried the state beginning in December. Only now has much of the snow in southeastern Colorado melted off, Wolter said.

Whatever spring holds, Denver Water's reservoirs, already in good shape, are likely to fill with spring runoff, and it would take "exceptionally dry" conditions for the situation to go downhill, said Trina McGuire-Collier, spokeswoman for the utility.

She did offer one caution, based on lessons learned: "Even though we've been fortunate to get a good amount of snowfall and our supplies should be fine, you're never going to hear us encourage or suggest people should use all the water they want."

Less certain is the outlook for forest fires and agriculture.

Should dry weather continue all spring, fire danger will rise. And despite excellent soil moisture in much of eastern Colorado, a lack of rain and snow in March and April would hurt farmers.

"They rely on that spring season for a good portion of their annual moisture," Gillespie said. "If you lose out on that, it can really ruin the year. So the next few months are critical."

hartmant@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-5048

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