So what about Hillary and Denver Democrats?

Convention here may help Clinton most, analysts say

Stuart Steers, M.E. Sprengelmeyer And Alan Gathright, Rocky Mountain News

Published December 13, 2006 at midnight

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If Denver wins the Democratic National Convention over New York City, the potential presidential nominee with the most to gain from a Denver confab is likely one of the people lobbying against it: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, of New York.

A decision on which city will host the 2008 convention could come this week, and politicians such as Clinton and Sen. Ken Salazar, D- Colo., have been pushing for their home states.

Ironically, many analysts say that of the leading contenders, Clinton might get the biggest boost from a Denver convention. To win, a Democratic presidential nominee must reach out beyond the party's base in the Northeast and on the West Coast. That's especially true for a senator from New York.

Political analyst Jennifer Duffy, of The Cook Political Report, said that Clinton can't count on any big boost from a hometown convention in New York City. She noted that Sen. John Kerry, of Massachusetts, was nominated in Boston, a choice that made it easier for his opponents to paint him as an out-of-touch "Massachusetts liberal."

"My gut tells me (that) going to Denver is better for her," Duffy said of Clinton, and she said the same logic applies to virtually every other top-tier Democratic presidential contender. "If any Democrat, including her, is going to win the presidency, they've got to win a state that Bush won last time, and there are a number of potential battlegrounds in the West, including Colorado."

Meanwhile, Clinton is a known entity in New York, and going there "sort of gives the perception this is the same Democratic Party we always see," Duffy said. "They're trying to put a new face on it."

Duffy said symbolism is one factor that parties have to consider. In 2004, Republicans successfully kept the focus on terrorism in part by making New York City the site of the Republican National Convention. Duffy noted that Bush didn't win over voters in traditionally Democratic New York, but he used the city to project his image as a strong leader.

In 1984, Democrats met in San Francisco to nominate Walter Mondale. The late ambassador to the United Nations, Jeane Kirkpatrick, lambasted the party as the "San Francisco Democrats" six times during a keynote address to the GOP convention in Dallas that year, an unmistakable allusion to the city's image as a bastion of West Coast liberalism.

Choosing Denver might send a message of its own.

"If they have a convention here, it sends the message they're not what they've always been," said Denver Republican political consultant Katy Atkinson.

Like Duffy, Atkinson thinks a Denver convention would give Clinton a boost. "It would show a party willing to reach out beyond the coasts."

Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli says bringing the convention to Denver would symbolize the party's determination to win over swing voters. Many of the potential Democratic nominees are from the Midwest - including Sen. Barack Obama, of Illinois, and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack - and wouldn't have Clinton's East Coast baggage, but they'd still need to appeal to Western voters.

"The Democrats would be trying to say they can compete in a part of the country with a lot of ticket splitters," said Ciruli.

Others say that, in the end, where the convention is held really doesn't make that much difference.

Political science professor Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia, notes that Republicans held their 2000 convention in Philadelphia, but President Bush failed to carry Pennsylvania.

The decision on which city gets the convention will be made by Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean. A high-level state party official, who spoke on the condition he not be named, said he expected an announcement early next week.

Cities that have had the most Democratic nominating conventions

Chicago

1864, 1884, 1892, 1896, 1932, 1940, 1944, 1952, 1956, 1968, 1996

New York

1868, 1924, 1976, 1980, 1992

St. Louis

1876, 1888, 1904, 1916

'San Francisco Democrat' hurt Walter Mondale

"When the San Francisco Democrats treat foreign affairs as an afterthought, as they did, they behaved less like a dove or a hawk than like an ostrich - convinced it would shut out the world by hiding its head in the sand."

Jeane Kirkpatrick, President Reagan's U.N. ambassador, taking a jab at the Democrats' 1984 convention in San Francisco that nominated Walter Mondale

'Massachusetts liberal' hurt John Kerry

"Having the convention in Boston is going to remind America that John Kerry is a Massachusetts liberal," said Republican consultant Michael McKeon. "He makes Ted Kennedy look conservative by comparison - and that's not a message that's going to play well in Middle America."

New York Daily News in 2004

"If any Democrat . . . is going to win the presidency, they've gotto win a state that Bushwon last time, and there are a number ofpotential battlegrounds in the West, including Colorado."

Jennifer Duffy, political analyst

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