Family, fortitude to dictate Allard's 2008 Senate plans

M.E. Sprengelmeyer, Rocky Mountain News

Published November 27, 2006 at midnight

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WASHINGTON - Sen. Wayne Allard is about to face the biggest decision of his political life, but it's really not so complicated, friends and political pundits say.

They acknowledge countless factors he'll consider before deciding whether to seek re-election in 2008.

He could mull his old term-limits pledge, consider the Democratic tilt of the recent elections, ponder the benefits of his seniority and his seat on the powerful Appropriations Committee, weigh the polling numbers, and start thinking about ramping up his fundraising machine.

But those who know Allard say the decision is more likely to turn on a couple of questions: What's best for Allard's family? And does Colorado's senior senator still have the "fire in the belly" to put them through another tough campaign?

As one recent retiree, former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, puts it: "If he feels in the best interests of his family to remain in office, he should stay, but if he feels otherwise, he should move on to new fields of green clover."

Since this month's congressional midterm elections, the advice has been pouring in - by calls and letters and e-mails to Allard's office.

After the polls closed Nov. 7, political insiders turned their eyes to 2008, when the country will elect a new president and Republicans will have to defend 21 of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs.

Allard was elected in 1996 and pledged to serve only two terms. He reiterated the pledge in 2002, but has since been ambiguous. Allard is expected to decide by early next year, chief of staff Sean Conway said.

Jennifer Duffy of the influential Cook Political Report already lists Allard's seat as one of the three most potentially competitive Senate seats in the country, whether Allard runs for re-election or not.

"You're seeing a much more energized Democratic Party" than in 1996 and 2002, when Allard beat Democrat Tom Strickland, Duffy said.

"(Allard) ran awfully good campaigns in 1996 and 2002, and he's going to have to run another perfect one because certainly (Rep.) Mark Udall would be the strongest candidate he has ever faced," Duffy said.

Still, even Duffy said Allard has different factors to consider.

"He needs to consider whether he has got the fire in the belly to do this again and serve six more years," Duffy said. "He knows what this campaign is going to be like. Does he have another campaign in him? Does he want to go again?"

Campbell had to face that same internal debate when he announced a re-election bid in 2003 and abruptly changed his mind in 2004.

Like Allard, Campbell had a coveted seat on the Senate Appropriations Committee.

"Of course, (Campbell) would like to see (Allard) run again, because it would be a huge blow to the people of Colorado to lose the sole appropriator and his seniority in the Senate," Campbell spokeswoman Kate Dando said.

In earlier Senate runs, the mild-mannered Allard had a pit bull - Republican operative Dick Wadhams - as campaign manager. Wadhams is soon to be unemployed after his boss, Republican Sen. George Allen, lost a gaffe-plagued run for re-election in Virginia.

People already are speculating Wadhams could come home to Colorado to win one more race for Allard, but not so fast, Wadhams said.

"I've not the foggiest idea what I'll do next," Wadhams said last week. He, too, said Allard's plans should come down to a family decision.

"No one knows the rigors of a statewide campaign better than Sen. Allard," Wadhams said. "He has gone through two elections when he was predicted by many pundits or observers not to win, only to surprise them both times. He knows what he's facing in 2008, and he'll make the decision if he's ready to go through the kind of rigors of that kind of campaign."

Since retirements create open seats that are tougher for a party to defend, Republicans are encouraging Allard to run, Conway said.

Meanwhile, would-be replacements are waiting on the sidelines. If Allard retires, that could open the door for Republicans such as outgoing Gov. Bill Owens, former Reps. Scott McInnis or Bob Schaffer, Rep. Tom Tancredo or others.

Last week, Tancredo said his own plans are on hold, in part because Allard has not decided. Schaffer, contacted via e-mail during a business trip to Iraq, said it's premature to talk about Allard replacements.

"The senator should do what his heart tells him is in the best interest of Colorado," Schaffer said. "I have no doubt that's what he's inclined to do. He's a superb senator. If he decides to run again, I'll be climbing on the crowded bandwagon of volunteers and donors pitching in to send him back to the U.S. Capitol."

To run or not?

The case for running

• Sits on the powerful

Appro- priations Committee

• Could save a Senate seat for GOP

• Veteran campaigner who knows how to win

The case against running

• Would have to abandon term-limit pledge

• Could face grueling race in 2008

• Demands on his family

Watching with interest

• U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo