A question of timing

Accusations may keep some from polls, pundits say

M.E. Sprengelmeyer And Myung Oak Kim, Rocky Mountain News

Published November 3, 2006 at midnight

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Conservatives called sex- charged allegations against a top evangelical leader a blatant attempt to keep "values voters" from going to the polls next week.

A gay escort's claim that the Rev. Ted Haggard paid him for sex came just five days before voters decide the fate of Amendment 43, a proposed ban on gay marriage, which the leader of the giant New Life Church in Colorado Springs championed.

Haggard's allies, such as James Dobson, founder of Colorado Springs-based Focus on the Family, denounced the media for publicizing "a rumor like this based on nothing but one man's accusation."

"Ted Haggard is a friend of mine, and it appears someone is trying to damage his reputation as a way of influencing the outcome of Tuesday's election," especially the marriage amendment vote, Dobson said in a release.

State Republican Party spokesman Bryant Adams called the timing of the allegations suspicious.

"It's amazing this guy would wait until six days before an election, when there's a marriage amendment on the ballot. Surprise, surprise," Adams said.

Adams predicted that the allegations would "tick off" religious conservatives and make them work harder on get-out-the-vote efforts.

Dobson has been among those trying to rally religious conservatives to vote in a crucial midterm election.

But various political pundits said the gay-sex charges against Haggard were the sort of bombshell, intentionally timed or not, that potentially could leave "values voters" confused, demoralized or less likely to rush to the polls on Tuesday.

"Of course, the real problem is we don't know if these allegations are true or not. The timing is what makes them so suspicious," said Bob Loevy, political science professor at Colorado College.

"The fact that this would be released just when there's inadequate time for him to defend himself before the votes are cast really makes it appear politically motivated more than anything else," Loevy said.

Norm Provizer, political science professor at Metropolitan State College of Denver, said that the allegations could have additional impact because they come on the heels of a congressional page scandal that led to the resignation of gay Republican lawmaker Mark Foley of Florida.

Polls already suggested that voter turnout among evangelical Christians - a key Republican voting block - could be lower this year, Provizer said.

The Haggard allegations could dampen enthusiasm among those who haven't cast early ballots already, he said.

"In a bunch of these races, it doesn't take much" to sway the result, Provizer said.

Officials from Coloradans for Marriage said in a statement, "This is a difficult situation for Pastor Haggard and his family. However, we will not let this distract us with our efforts to pass the Colorado Marriage Amendment to define marriage as a union between one man and one woman."

Backers of Referendum I, which would grant gay and lesbian couples domestic partnership rights, refused to comment, except to deny any connection to Haggard's accuser, Denver resident Mike Jones.

Campaigns don't like surprises, said GOP political consultant Katy Atkinson.

"When you can't predict what the reaction is going to be, it makes you more nervous," she said.

"Some people could react to it with anger against the gay and lesbian community. There are people who could react with anger and resentment against the promoters of Amendment 43. You just can't tell how people will react."

Other political analysts said they did not expect the allegations to sway many voters, especially since large numbers of people already have cast ballots.

"This is the sort of thing that's more likely to have people scratch their heads and say what's this all about? That's not the same thing as saying, 'I'm going to flip my vote,' " said John Straayer, political science professor at Colorado State University.

"I would doubt that this is going to move enough of the electorate in one direction or another to affect the outcome of the election," Straayer added.

Political consultant Eric Sondermann said that if the allegations are substantiated, he would expect a bigger long-term political impact.

"If these allegations ultimately are born out, you bet that Ted Haggard becomes a poster child that gets repeatedly brought up against those who oppose (gay rights) measures down the line," Sondermann said.

They said it

"This doesn't help anybody if it's true."

Bishop Phillip Porter, leader of Amendment 43, the ballot proposal that would define marriage in the state constitution as a union between a man and woman

"We're going to continue what we've done for 24 years: serve our community and serve our church. Our structure is in place so that our church will continue to serve."

Carolyn Haggard, the pastor's niece and church spokeswoman

"I think it's completely ridiculous. There's no way it's true. The church supports Ted Haggard."

Leslie Barr, church member

"Obviously they (the charges) are false. They're absurd and heinous in every way. I can't begin to describe what a great man he is."

Quinn Cory, church volunteer

"I feel really shocked. It's kind of hard to believe." Joanna Mason, who works at the church

"I hate it when people call me a prostitute. I'm an escort. Besides, I haven't done escorting in two years. (Haggard) was a leftover."

Mike Jones, who says he had sex with Haggard

"Everybody that I vetted him with said, 'Yeah, he's telling the truth.' "

Peter Boyles, KHOW-AM talk-show host who first broadcast Jones' accusations

"Pastor Ted is great. He's a total family guy. He loves God. It's a good family church because of the qualities Pastor Ted puts out."

Andy Rea, church member

"If I wanted money, I would have blackmailed him."

Mike Jones

"It's good that we're going to get to the bottom of this, to get to the truth. No one is above the law. We need to find the truth, and the truth will set us free."

Father Bill Carmody, Catholic priest at two suburban Colorado Springs churches

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