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Tancredo trails in Iowa poll

M.E. Sprengelmeyer, Rocky Mountain News

Published January 18, 2007 at midnight

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Rep. Tom Tancredo pulls just 2 percent in the latest Iowa presidential poll, but his sixth-place showing in a crowded field means he has the potential to influence the debate, pollster John Zogby said this week.

Zogby's latest telephone poll in Iowa shows former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading the Republican field with 19 percent, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain, 17 percent; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, 13 percent; Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, 9 percent; former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 5 percent; Tancredo, 2 percent; Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, 2 percent. Four others tied at 1 percent are Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former New York Gov. George Pataki.

The poll, which included Rice even though she has said she has no interest in running, found 22 percent of respondents were "not sure" of any of the Republican contenders.

"On the Republican side, the two most talked-about candidates are doing well and will fight it out for the support of moderate Republicans and independents," Zogby said in a Wednesday release. "But our polling in this race also begs the question: Is Newt Gingrich the choice of the conservative wing?"

Zogby said Gingrich could "complicate" efforts by Giuliani and McCain to move further to the right, and he also took note of Tancredo, who has become a national lightning rod over his crusade opposing illegal immigration.

"An interesting development can also be found in the 2 percent support for conservative Congressman Tom Tancredo of Colorado," Zogby said. "It means that, if nothing else, he and Newt are going to influence the internal debate in the Republican Party."

Zogby International said its survey was based on interviews Monday and Tuesday with 465 likely Iowa caucus-goers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Tancredo made his latest scouting trip to Iowa last weekend and on Tuesday morning announced that he is forming an exploratory committee so he can begin fundraising and decide, likely by the summer, whether he will go forward with a longshot run for president.

Details on the Zogby International poll can be found at www.zogby.com