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Taking his place at the table

Illegal immigration crusader carrying debate to next level

M.E. Sprengelmeyer, Rocky Mountain News

Published April 3, 2007 at midnight

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DES MOINES, Iowa - U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo didn't just kick off his 2008 presidential bid on Monday. He also declared a victory of sorts.

The way the Littleton Republican sees it, just by running he has won a place in the 2008 debate for his crusade against illegal immigration.

"Certainly, the fact that we'll force the debate on this issue to reach a higher level, that's great," he told the Rocky Mountain News. "So one way or the other I end up winning, as far as I'm concerned."

But like everything else about Colorado's most famous firebrand, that assertion itself is up for debate.

Tancredo was still talking his way through 20 scheduled radio appearances in Iowa on Monday when political analysts began debating what, if any, impact his candidacy will have.

Larry Sabato, a political science professor from the University of Virginia, said he planned to list Tancredo in the "don't bother following" category - alongside another Republican long shot, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas. "He will make more noise than he will get votes," Sabato said.

But in Iowa, home of the first- in-the-nation presidential caucuses, political observers said Tancredo could be poised for a surprising showing that gives him a longer, louder stint on the national stage.

"What are the caucuses about if they're not about expectations?" said David Redlawsk, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa.

"What he has to do to get attention is beat expectations. When the expectations are next to zero, it may be possible to do that."

Debate role likely

Entering the race for the GOP nomination should earn Tancredo a place in some of the early forums and debates, which typically include the widest array of candidates possible. The trick is to appear viable at later stages, when panels sometimes are winnowed to just a few top contenders.

Tancredo's hope rests primarily on immigration reform, its costs and consequences and uneasiness among some people about the way new faces, new languages and new cultures are changing the country.

Tancredo has set the tone by using conservative talk radio as his "megaphone." By his count, he's already done 1,800 on-air appearances.

So it was no coincidence that he chose that medium to make his official announcement Monday.

"They're the ones that brought me to the party, so I'm going to dance with them," Tancredo said at his first stop, news radio station WHO-AM, in Des Moines where a conservative icon, former President Reagan, made his broadcasting debut re-creating play-by-play reports on Chicago Cubs baseball games from the sports ticker.

Tancredo, who was a regional Department of Education official under Reagan, claims he is the "most consistent conservative" in the race.

When asked, he talks about his long record opposing abortion, supporting gun rights, pushing to cut taxes and pushing to control government spending.

But it's immigration that dominates his stump speech: He sees it permeating countless other issues from national security to health care costs to education.

"As I've said before, there are two kinds of people who run for office: the ones who want to be something and the ones who want to do something," Tancredo said. "I'm going to do something about this issue, immigration and immigration reform. It's as serious as the battles we're fighting overseas. The battles of immigration reform are a battle to define America."

Influx spurs backlash

Although Iowa is several states removed from the U.S.-Mexico border, the state has seen an influx of foreign-born workers, particularly in agriculture and meatpacking.

That has created a backlash in some circles. By making immigration reform the centerpiece of his campaign, Tancredo has a chance to capture a significant portion of likely Republican caucus-goers, said Peverill Squire, a political science professor at the University of Iowa.

Even though some other contenders, such as Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., generally share Tancredo's views on immigration, only Tancredo attacks it with "sole-mindedness," Squire said.

"I think Tancredo probably gets the hard-line immigration issue to himself," Squire said. If so, he could draw double-digit percentages in the Iowa caucuses next January, and that would allow him to carry the proverbial megaphone into more states, more debates and more national media interviews.

Winning the White House is another question.

Tancredo enters the contest admitting he is on the "second tier" of Republican contenders, behind perceived front-runners such as former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain, of Arizona.

While top contenders are expected to raise and spend up to $100 million on the way to the nomination, Tancredo's exploratory committee, "Tancredo For A Secure America," has raised $1.4 million so far.

Tancredo is undaunted, saying he does not need $100 million. "It's not like I have to create a whole new constituency," he said in an interview. "I'm there."

Tancredo is running on the -Iowa-or-bust strategy that is famous for propelling little-known underdogs - like then-Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter in 1976 - onto the national stage and all the way to the White House.

That could be tougher in 2008. California and other states have moved their primaries and caucuses to Feb. 5, 2008 - just a few weeks after Iowa's caucus. A surprisingly high showing in Iowa could bring valuable, free news coverage, but it then would take tens of millions of dollars to be a serious contender in the de facto national primary that follows.

Since the front-loaded primary season is unprecedented, it's unclear whether Tancredo would benefit under his best-case scenario for Iowa.

"Anyone who stumbles in Iowa doesn't have time to recover," Redlawsk said. "Whether someone who comes out strongly from Iowa has enough time to do anything with it, that's the part we just don't know."

Although he is officially committed to the race for the White House, Tancredo hinted that he does not necessarily plan to give up his safely Republican 6th Congressional District if he fails to win the GOP presidential nomination.

Facts about the candidate

• Party: Republican

• Home: Littleton

• Age: 61

• Education: Bachelor's degree from the University of Northern Colorado in 1968

• Family: Married in 1977. He and his wife, Jackie, have two children, Ray and Randy, and five grandchildren.

• Occupation: Originally a teacher. Taught for several years at Drake Junior High School in Arvada

• Early politics: Served in the Colorado House from 1976 to 1981.

• Next moves: In 1981, he was appointed by the Reagan administration to head a regional office of the U.S. Department of Education. He held the post through 1993, when a Democrat was elected to the White House. From 1993 to 1998, he led the Independence Institute, a pubic policy think tank in Golden.

• In Washington: He won a seat in Congress in 1998, representing the 6th District.

• On Monday: Officially joined the Republican race for the White House.

What they propose

Here's where some Republican presidential candidates and possible candidates stand on immigration.

• Sen. Sam Brownback, Kan.: Supports stronger enforcement on U.S.-Mexico border.

Source: www.brownback.com

• John Cox, Illinois: Opposesamnesty or a guest worker program; supports border security and enforcement as well as penalizing businesses that hire illegal immigrants.

Source: www.cox2008.com/cox/cq

• Former Va. Gov. James S. Gilmore III: Opposes amnesty; supports stronger borders and favors requiring employers to verify the status of workers.

Source: www.gilmoreforpresident.com

• Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani: Supports stronger borders and ID system. Says illegal immigrants who want to change their status should pay a penalty, go to the end of the processing line, and be required to read and write English and learn American history.

Source: ABC News

• Former Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee: Favors giving productive, taxpaying illegal immigrants who have lived for years in the U.S. a chance to get a guest-worker permit after they pay a fine and wait at the end of the immigration processing line to change their status.

Source: www.explorehuckabee.com

• Rep. Duncan Hunter, Calif.: Supports building fences in strategic spots along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Source: www.gohunter08.com

• Sen. John McCain, Ariz.: Supports a guest-worker program and tougher penalties against employers who hire illegal immigrants. Illegal immigrants who pay fines and back taxes, undergo criminal and security checks, pass English and civics tests, and remain employed for six years could go to the back of the line and apply for legal permanent residence status.

Source: www.johnmccain.com

• Rep. Ron Paul, Texas: Supports deportation of people who overstay their visas and ending birthright citizenship to children of illegal immigrants.

Source: www.ronpaul2008.com

• Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney: Supports tighter borders, increased legal immigration and a tamper-proof documentation and employment verification system.

Source: www.mittromney.com

• Rep. Tom Tancredo, Colo.: Supports building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, a crackdown on employers who hire illegal immigrants; opposes a guest-worker plan, especially if it includes a path to citizenship.

Source: Rocky Mountain News research

• Former Wis. Gov. Tommy G. Thompson: Supports deportation of all illegal immigrants; calls for beefing up borders.

Source: Thompson campaign

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