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Hispanic vote sprouting muscles

Community's leaders predict large rise in voters over '02

Ann Imse And Hector Gutierrez, Rocky Mountain News

Published November 2, 2006 at midnight

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Hispanic leaders predict that Colorado will show the nation's biggest jump in Hispanic voter turnout in this year's general election, driven by what they call "insulting" anti-illegal immigration ads.

"The anti-immigration commercials are very insulting to the Latino community," said Polly Baca, executive director of the Latin American Research and Service Agency. She said the ads encourage bias against all people of Hispanic heritage, and she predicted they will backfire against candidates using them by bringing out Hispanics to vote against them.

Counting the actual number of Hispanic voters is impossible, but the U.S. Census does a regular survey of voters that makes estimates. The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials used that data to predict that 163,000 Hispanics will vote in Colorado in this election, a 38 percent increase over the 118,000 estimated to have cast ballots in 2002, the last midterm election.

That is the largest percentage jump predicted by the group in any state. If the Hispanic-turnout prediction holds, it means that Hispanics will cast almost 7 percent of the total anticipated statewide vote of 2.4 million.

Hispanics make up roughly 19 percent of Colorado's 4.6 million population.

Baca says there's good reason to believe that estimate of 163,000. Many groups in Colorado have been registering Hispanics and urging them to vote since the huge public marches last spring against anti-immigrant legislation, she said. About 50,000 came out in Denver last March after the House of Representatives voted to treat the nation's millions of illegal immigrants as felons, she said.

"People finally recognized the importance of voting," Baca said.

"Seventy to 80 percent of the people who marched were citizens, and those are the people who registered to vote."

One of them was Francisco Muniz, 29, who cast his ballot in an American election for the first time Wednesday.

Muniz became a U.S. citizen two years ago and said that one reason he decided to vote in this year's election was that "a lot of the immigration laws are changing."

Muniz said he was affected by the immigration debate.

"I think we need to unite and become stronger," said Muniz, who voted at the Athmar Recreation Center with his wife, Guadalupe. "If we don't vote, our voices won't count."

Hector Tovar, 44, voted for the first time Tuesday in a Colorado election. In 2000, when he was in Texas, he cast his ballot in his first presidential election for President Bush.

"I met him when he was campaigning, and he was with Chuck Norris, and I was impressed," Tovar said.

One reason Tovar said he voted for Bush was that Bush campaigned on issues that were supportive of the immigrant communities, including undocumented workers. Now, Tovar said he believes the Democratic Party is the party that hasn't been bashing illegal immigrants.

"I don't remember his name right now, but he was bad-mouthing immigrants," Tovar suddenly said with a pained look on his face. Then he snapped his fingers: "Tancredo."

In addition to LARASA, other groups registering Hispanic voters include the Latina Initiative, Rights for All People, Progressive Coalition and the Service Employees International union, Baca said.

They have room to work: The census survey in 2004 estimated that 63 percent of Colorado Hispanics were U.S. citizens, but more than half were not registered to vote.

And that was in a year when Ken and John Salazar were running for U.S. senator and representative, respectively.

Baca particularly cited the 5th District race for Congress in Colorado Springs as a place where the rising Hispanic vote might lead to surprises this year. "There are more Latinos in El Paso County than Pueblo County," she said.

NALEO says Hispanics are 12 percent of voting-age citizens statewide, but 16 percent in the 7th District Congressional race between Ed Perlmutter and Rick O'Donnell, and 17 percent in the 3rd Congressional District race between John Salazar and Scott Tipton.

The group estimated that half of Colorado's Hispanic voters are registered as Democrats and nearly 19 percent as Republicans

NALEO estimated that 5.6 million Latinos could vote nationwide this year, 18 percent more than four years ago.

Strength in numbers

Hispanic leaders predict that Colorado will see the nation's largest jump in Hispanic voter turnout.

163,000 The predicted number of Hispanics who will vote in this year's general election.

118,000 The number of Hispanics estimated to have voted in 2002, the last midterm election.

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