Dems eye GOP apple

In Republican hands since its inception, Springs district may be ripe for the picking

Dick Foster, Rocky Mountain News

Published October 11, 2006 at midnight

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COLORADO SPRINGS - Longtime Republicans said they expect to easily retain retiring Rep. Joel Hefley's seat, despite a poll that shows a tie between Republican state Sen. Doug Lamborn and Democrat Jay Fawcett.

However, others say the poll numbers reflect serious troubles for the Republican Party, not just in this district but across the country.

"There's absolutely no doubt that the Democrat has the best chance ever in the history of this district to win this race," said Tom Cronin, a Colorado College political-science professor who ran for the same seat as a Democrat in 1982. The GOP has held the 5th Congressional District seat for its entire 34-year history.

"There's a lot of disaffection, even in El Paso County, for this administration and the conduct of the war. Some of the Bush administration's harshest critics are in the military or retired military," Cronin said.

Fawcett himself falls into that category, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who graduated from the Air Force Academy and served in the Persian Gulf War.

Even with issues such as North Korea's nuclear detonation and the congressional page scandal, the Iraq war is "the elephant in the room" of this election, Cronin said.

Some prospective voters gave similar opinions on the streets of Colorado Springs on Tuesday.

"The way the war's going, I don't know. That's the top topic," said Jack Richardson, a former Navy Seabee who was renewing his license tags Tuesday. "There's too many of our people getting killed. It's almost like the Vietnam War."

Richardson would not say who he will vote for, but Fawcett favors moving U.S. troops to the Iraqi borders and training Iraqi defense forces. Lamborn backs the Bush administration's continued engagement.

The poll results brought elation to Faw-cett's campaign headquarters. They show the two men tied at 37 percentage points each, with 26 percent of voters undecided.

"What people have forgotten to look at is that this has been a changing district over the last 20 years, and the Democrats have never put up a candidate like Jay Fawcett," said his campaign manager, Wanda James. "Our own polls showed that Jay was within striking distance of this. Now, to have an independent poll confirm it, we're thrilled. Everybody's paying attention now."

Lamborn's campaign manager, Jon Hotaling, doubted the poll's accuracy, saying it included a higher proportion of Democrats and a lower number of unaffiliated voters than the district's actual profile.

"Our internal polls show us with a healthy lead, but, of course, we're not taking anything for granted," Hotaling said. "We need to be working hard here at turning out Republicans."

Lamborn's position on Iraq is not necessarily a liability in the district, where many active and retired members of the military support the war.

But Lamborn must deal with other difficulties within the Republican Party.

A quarrelsome primary among six candidates split the party, and Hefley refused to endorse Lamborn, charging him with running a sleazy campaign.

However, many influential Republicans who opposed Lamborn have said they will vote for him in November.

Among them is former El Paso County Republican Party Chairman Bob Gardner, who filed a Federal Election Commission complaint against Lamborn for attack ads in the August primary.

"It's not about that," he said. "It's about a very different vision for our city, our state and our country. Doug Lamborn shares the Republican vision, and Jay Fawcett shares Nancy Pelosi and Hilary Clinton's vision."

Gardner did not think the race was as close as the poll numbers in The Denver Post indicated.

The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon research, queried 400 likely voters and has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

Cronin said he expects many Republicans such as Gardner would "come home to the Republican Party" when they vote in November.

Such a movement would prove troublesome for Fawcett.

"This is one of the 12 most Republican districts in the country," Cronin said.

Republicans outnumber Democrats 190,000 to 89,000.

But then there are the 133,000 unaffiliated voters in the district. Traditionally they break 2-to-1 for Republican candidates.

"But this is an unusual election," Cronin said.

"There's still a month to go, and there are a lot of undecideds."

Solidly Republican

Colorado's 5th Congressional District has been represented by Republicans since its inception in 1972:

Bill Armstrong   1972-78

Ken Kramer   1978-86

Joel Hefley   1986-2006

fosterd@RockyMountainNews.com or 719-633-4442

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