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With nation watching, drama unfolding in Colorado's congressional races

M.E. Sprengelmeyer, Rocky Mountain News

Published October 7, 2006 at midnight

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It's a soldier story and a tale of uncertainty. It's about underdogs facing tough odds and powerful people struggling for survival.

Or not.

The hype over Colorado's congressional races this year is like a preview for a mega-budget, Hollywood blockbuster. That's a marked change from past elections in which the outcomes packed about as much suspense as TV sitcoms.

"The difference this year is you have fewer mail-it-in elections, where people show up on election day and everyone knows they're going to win," said Sean Conway, chief of staff to Sen. Wayne Allard, R-Loveland.

Each November, Democrats usually win the liberal-leaning territory around Denver and Boulder. Republicans usually win conservative-leaning rural areas, suburbs and military towns. Incumbents everywhere usually survive.

Political oddsmakers say it could end up that way this year, but not before some interesting dramas unfold in every corner of the state.

• In the northern suburbs of Denver, the 7th District is considered one of the country's top battlegrounds, pitting Democrat Ed Perlmutter against Republican Rick O'Donnell.

The seat came open when incumbent Bob Beauprez decided to run for governor. In the last open-seat election in 2002, Beauprez topped Democrat Mike Feeley by 121 votes. Some say it might not be as much of a cliffhanger this time around.

• In eastern Colorado, Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave is trying to fend off Democratic challenger Angie Paccione in a contest some observers call surprisingly close. If the result comes down to the wire, the X-factor could be Reform Party candidate Eric Eidsness, a former Reagan administration appointee. If he takes votes from Musgrave, that would help Paccione.

• In southwestern Colorado, first-term Democratic Rep. John Salazar is trying to hold GOP-leaning territory. His Muslim spokeswoman's spat with the firebrand Rep. Tom Tancredo has added a new element to the race against Republican challenger Scott Tipton.

Meanwhile, Democrats have enlisted military veterans to run in two solidly Republican bastions, hoping the war in Iraq and local subplots will favor their candidates.

• In the 5th District that includes military-heavy Colorado Springs, retiring Rep. Joel Hefley has refused to endorse fellow Republican Doug Lamborn. That gives hope to Democratic long shot Jay Fawcett, an Air Force Academy graduate who is trying to gain crossover votes from fellow military veterans.

• In the southwest suburbs of Denver, Tancredo faces Democrat Bill Winter, another military veteran. Besides highlighting the unpopular war in Iraq, he's arguing that Tancredo has ignored the district while he makes a national name for himself on the immigration issue.

It all adds up to more intrigue, if not actual competition, this year, said Bob Loevy, a political science professor at Colorado college.

If there's a national tidal wave lifting all Democrats, then in theory, "Whammo! The delegation is 6-1" for Democrats, Loevy said. He considers that scenario unlikely, given the way districts have been drawn to create safe havens for both parties and only one or two truly competitive seats in Colorado.

"A lot of this talk, in my view, is being generated by Democrats, because in order to have a chance of winning, people first have to think they have a chance of winning," Loevy said.

Still, the ever-changing mood of the country is in the background of Colorado's congressional elections.

Each time there's a new headline - whether it's grim news about the war in Iraq, a scandal in Congress, or ups and downs in the economy - pundits hedge their bets about whether there will be a nationwide move for change.

To some, this year's volatile political climate reminds people of 1974, when voters punished many Republicans in the wake of Watergate.

That year in Colorado, Democrat Tim Wirth ousted Republican Rep. Donald Brotzman in the 2nd District; Republican Rep. James Johnson survived a re-election scare by just four percentage points in the 4th District; Democratic U.S. Senate challenger Gary Hart ousted incumbent Republican Sen. Peter Dominick.

"I think 2006 has the potential to be another realignment year," said Bill Armstrong, the Republican who represented the 5th Congressional District for six years before his two terms in the U.S. Senate. "I'm not hoping that it is. My hope is Republicans will shake off their discontent, rouse themselves and go to vote."

If not, there could be surprises, even in places where there are more registered Republicans than Democrats, analysts say.

7th District

National trends could have the greatest effect in the 7th District, which is almost evenly split among Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters.

The National Journal's "House Race Hotline" still lists the race as one of the top two pick-up chances for Democrats in the country. Editor Josh Kraushaar said Republican O'Donnell has fought an uphill battle because he got a late start introducing himself to voters.

"You could argue that O'Donnell was hurt by not having any competition in the primary, and it wasn't until the end of August that he really started getting his campaign ramped-up," Kraushaar said.

Recent polls have shown Perlmutter with a double-digit lead, although Republicans dispute the numbers. Some analysts doubt the race will be as close as 2002, but Kraushaar said it's such a battleground that national Republicans are unlikely to concede the seat and shift money out of the district any time soon.

4th District

The "Hotline" also lists Musgrave's 4th District on the second-tier of races that could be competitive.

Kraushaar and other analysts see Musgrave as the favorite. However, recent polls have suggested there could be some backlash against Republican control of the House of Representatives. And if Eidsness takes enough protest votes, that could make the outcome even more difficult to predict.

"The only question is, if the third party candidate draws votes, that could definitely be an effect," Loevy said.

3rd District

Until recently, Salazar's re-election bid looked like a cake-walk, even though the district's voter registration rolls lean Republican.

During the past two years, national Democrats rallied to help Salazar amass a formidable fundraising advantage over Tipton. Meanwhile, most pundits predicted the national GOP would ignore the race, saving its resources to defend open-seat races and vulnerable incumbents elsewhere.

But in recent months, Tipton has gotten some momentum.

Tancredo started helping on fundraising as Tipton began stressing the immigration issue. And then last month, Salazar was thrown off message for a week by a controversy over his Muslim press aide.

The flap was touched off when Tancredo defended Pope Benedict XVI's controversial comments questioning the tenets of Islam. That drew an angry e-mail retort from Salazar's communications director Nayyera Haq.

Tancredo, Tipton and various right-leaning Internet blogs tried to draw Salazar into a debate about Haq's views. The rhetoric didn't stop after Salazar finally defended her right to speak for herself.

It was at least a momentary distraction for Salazar. Still, Kraushaar doubts it will have much lasting effect.

"Is it possible that Colorado-3 could be a better Republican pickup (chance) than some of the other races? Possibly," Kraushaar said. "But the fact of the matter is, national Republicans aren't really targeting that race. I think you'd have to see a few more gaffes, and big gaffes."

5th District

The biggest surprise this year is that any national pundits are even talking about the race to replace the retiring Hefley in a district with about 100,000 more Republicans than Democrats.

The reason: Hefley, upset with what he calls Lamborn's "sleazy" campaign in the crowded GOP primary, is one of only two retiring House members in the country who has refused to endorse his party's replacement nominee.

Hefley's decision, along with Fawcett's attempt to reach out to fellow military veterans, caused the influential political web site CQPolitics.com, a Congressional Quarterly spin-off, to declare the district "no longer safe" for the GOP this year.

The National Journal's Hotline listed it 50th on a list of 50 races to watch.

"The number 50 spot is often races that have interesting dynamics to them but aren't necessarily going to flip," Kraushaar said.

6th District

Similarly, the 6th District gets some political buzz because, since the last time Tancredo sought re-election, he has become a national figure revered by illegal immigration opponents and vilified by critics.

As a military veteran, Democratic challenger Winter is trying to capitalize on growing public sentiment against the Iraq war. And, like vanquished challengers before him, he has argued that Tancredo's rhetoric has been irresponsible at times.

"Even if he has gone too far for some people, he has done it on an issue that is a concern to people (immigration)," said Norman Provizer, a political science professor from Metropolitan State College of Denver.

Provizer does not see a serious challenge for Tancredo, nor for two Democratic incumbents, Rep. Diana DeGette, of Denver, and Rep. Mark Udall, of Eldorado Springs.

Still, like national pundits, he's waiting to see if the much-hyped national groundswell for Democrats materializes. If it's a flop, that, too, could be dramatic, he said.

"Democrats," Provizer said, "have established a precedent of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory."

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