Poll shows 17-point lead for Perlmutter

GOP disputes results, says House race with O'Donnell still close

Chris Barge, Rocky Mountain News

Published September 27, 2006 at midnight

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Predictions that a congressional race in suburban Denver would be among the tightest in the country were deflated Tuesday by a poll showing Democrat Ed Perlmutter with a double-digit lead.

The automated telephone poll conducted by Survey USA for 9News found that 54 percent of likely voters in the 7th Congressional District were supporting Perlmutter, while 37 percent said they would vote for Republican Rick O'Donnell.

Six percent of the 482 respondents were undecided according to the poll that has a 4.5 percentage- point margin of error.

A Survey USA poll last month found the candidates in a dead heat for the seat left open by Republican Bob Beauprez, who is running for governor.

Perlmutter's campaign was upbeat Tuesday, but quick to point out that the lead could narrow once Republicans start spending their significant war chest in earnest on negative advertising.

National Republicans questioned the poll results and insisted that the district is still one of the most competitive seats in the country.

"We're 100 percent committed to this race," National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Jonathan Collegio said.

Even if Perlmutter has a big lead now, it will narrow as O'Donnell catches up with the name recognition Perlmutter got from competing in a primary against two opponents, Collegio said.

Voter registration is split nearly evenly in the 7th among Democrats, Republicans and independents. Poll respondents were 38 percent Republican, 37 percent Democratic and 24 percent independent.

Perlmutter enjoys a 40 percent advantage among self-described moderates, who represented almost half of the poll respondents.

The poll was being conducted just as an outside Democratic "527" committee launched an attack ad saying that while O'Donnell once wanted to abolish Social Security, he now wants to privatize it.

O'Donnell got on the air almost immediately with an ad apologizing for writing an essay in 1995 as a 24-year-old communications director for Newt Gingrich's Progress & Freedom Foundation titled "For Freedom's Sake, Eliminate Social Security."

In the ad, O'Donnell went on to say he would never abolish or privatize Social Security. And he countered that Perlmutter wanted to raise taxes and decrease Social Security benefits - a claim Perlmutter firmly denies.

The poll may reflect the recent success of Democratic attacks on O'Donnell over Social Security, Republican consultant Katy Atkinson said. It's the kind of hot-button issue where the claims have a huge impact, no matter their truth, she said.

O'Donnell needs to focus voters' attention on how Perlmutter wants to roll back the Bush tax cuts, Atkinson said. "My guess is much of that support is still soft, that Perlmutter still probably hasn't closed the deal yet," she added.

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