The power of purple

More unaffiliated suburbanites vote 'for the person' - not the red or blue

Stuart Steers, Rocky Mountain News

Published September 23, 2006 at midnight

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Denver's populous suburban counties are in a state of flux, with changing political allegiances that have the potential to alter state politics. A surge in unaffiliated voter registration means that Denver's suburbs are now neither Republican red nor Democratic blue, but solidly purple.

At least for the most part.

Recent voter registration figures show that the number of Republican voters has declined during the past two years in every suburban county, while the number of unaffiliated voters has increased. The percentage of Democrats has remained roughly the same in most counties.

The percentage of voters who don't sign up with either party has jumped to 36 percent in Adams County, 39 percent in Boulder County, 36.3 percent in Broomfield and 32.8 percent in Jefferson County.

It's these suburban unaffiliated voters who will determine who becomes governor and which party controls the state legislature and the bulk of Colorado's congressional delegation.

"I vote for the person," said Jan Mullen, a Lakewood Republican who said she is increasingly disenchanted with her party. "I read all the junk about the candidates that comes in the mail."

Mullen, who lives in a swing district that could determine which party controls the state legislature, said she is barraged with mail that attacks candidates on both sides.

"It's upsetting . . .," she said.

For years Jefferson County was a Republican stronghold, but now most of the county's state legislators are Democrats. Republicans are still the largest bloc of voters, with 37.4 percent, but Jeffco may be Colorado's premier purple county.

"I don't think anybody could say it's a Republican county anymore," said Mary Alice Mandarich, a longtime Democratic activist who has worked on campaigns in the county for more than two decades. "The demographics and issues have changed."

Shifting political ground in suburbs

The suburbs' ticket-splitting ways became apparent in 2004, when Arapahoe, Jefferson and Broomfield counties voted to re-elect President Bush and to send Democrat Ken Salazar to the U.S. Senate. The suburbs' independent streak seems to have deepened since then, judging by the spike in unaffiliated voters.

While the decline in Republican registration has excited Democrats, their party has just held its own in the percentage of registered voters in most of the suburban counties. There is still a clear lead in Republican registration numbers in Arapahoe, Douglas, Jefferson and Broomfield counties.

"You don't see a surge in Democratic registration; what that suggests is these folks are willing to split tickets and look at the person," said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli. "The Democrats still have to prove themselves."

For years, Colorado politicians have known that elections in this state are won and lost in the Denver suburbs. With 2 million residents, Denver's sprawling suburban counties easily outvote urban Denver and rural Colorado.

Once the political makeup of these counties was regarded as fairly fixed, with Boulder and Adams counties usually going Democratic, and Jefferson, Arapahoe and Douglas counties reliably Republican. The state GOP had a solid band of voters extending along the western and southern flank of the metro area that often helped Republican candidates coast to victory, but that seems to be changing.

Ciruli said the shifting political ground in the suburbs is driven by demographics. Most of the suburban counties have become more racially and economically diverse over the past few years.

Since 2000, U.S. Census Bureau figures show that the Hispanic population, in particular, has ballooned in the suburbs.

In Adams County, Hispanics went from 28 percent to 35 percent of the population, with 139,000 Hispanics now living there.

In Arapahoe County, the Hispanic population rose from 12 percent to 16 percent in the first half of this decade; the county now has 85,000 Hispanic residents. Smaller increases were recorded in the other suburban counties.

"The inner-ring, older suburbs like Lakewood, Aurora, Arvada and Wheat Ridge are getting more diverse with working-class and poorer people moving in," Ciruli said.

At the same time, many of the older suburbs have found themselves dealing with the same types of urban problems that Denver has faced for years.

"There's a blending of the needs and concerns of the inner suburbs and the inner city," said Ciruli, noting that the Republican mayors of Lakewood and Aurora now frequently work with Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, a Democrat, on a variety of issues.

"People like to think of the suburbs as wealthy, white and Christian - that's not the case at all," said Republican political consultant Katy Atkinson. "The suburbs have become very diverse.

"The conventional wisdom about the suburbs may be wrong."

Dems may catch a break

Atkinson said many suburbanites who voted Republican in past years may be willing to "give the Democrats a chance" this fall.

"People are on the fence," she said. "The Democrats haven't closed the deal. Republicans will have to work hard to get suburban votes."

The Republicans are strongest in the so-called "exurbs," low-density areas at the fringe of a big city. Douglas County may be the best example of a local exurban county, and Republicans still comprise just over 50 percent of the county's voters.

The change in party affiliation in suburban counties during the past two years may be linked to the increasingly unpopular war in Iraq.

Recent polling by the Rocky Mountain News and CBS 4 revealed that Colorado voters are upset about the war and unhappy with the status quo in Washington. Fifty-nine percent of voters surveyed disapproved of the job President Bush is doing. Several suburban voters interviewed by the News said they were unhappy with Bush.

"It feels like America is on its own," said Joseph O'Meara, a 39-year-old unaffiliated Centennial voter. "We've alienated most of the world. The president's address was another scolding to the international community, 'You're with us or against us.' "

Others fear that U.S. soldiers now find themselves in the middle of a civil war in Iraq.

"We got ourselves into a civil war, and we're never going to solve it," said Kristin Vasey, a 34-year-old Highlands Ranch Democrat. "We're trying to police the world."

National polls reveal that a crucial swing vote in this election are so-called "security moms," suburban mothers who voted to re-elect Bush because they thought he was the best candidate to deal with terrorism. Many of those women now say they've lost confidence in the president.

"Voting for Bush was a mistake," said Lisa Sanchez, of Lakewood, a 35-year-old unaffiliated voter and mother of two. "I won't be voting for the Republicans this time."

Others say they still believe in Bush's ability to take on the terrorists.

"I support our president," said Martha Gray, a 62-year-old Lakewood Republican. "I'd rather fight the terrorists over there than here. I think it's a situation that needs to be taken care of."

Many suburban voters also believe the economy is not doing as well as economic reports indicate. They say many employers are cutting back on health benefits and people are working longer hours to pay their mortgage.

"A lot of my friends are working 60 hours a week to maintain their lifestyle," said Hope Belloni, a 39-year-old unaffiliated Castle Rock voter. "$300,000 for a house is not affordable housing."

steerss@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-2282

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