Fate of several initiatives seen in 'dire straits'

Poll: Support looks insufficient in light of long, wordy ballot

Sara Burnett, Rocky Mountain News

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Colorado voters' enthusiasm about the fall election appears to wane as they move through a crowded ballot to questions about school funding, term limits for judges, petition rights and marijuana, a Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 poll shows.

The most popular initiative would require school districts to spend at least 65 percent of their operation funds on services that directly affect student achievement. Two-thirds of voters supported that measure, known as Referendum J.

The other questions hovered at or below 50 percent support - a finding that could mean problems for measure proponents, pollster Lori Weigel said.

Support for ballot initiatives tends to fall off over the course of a campaign, and when undecided voters are in the ballot booth, the safe answer is often the status quo, or a "no" vote.

So any measure that has less than 50 percent support at this point is in "dire straits," Weigel said.

This year may be even tougher because of the sheer number of items on the ballot; with 15 statewide questions in addition to races for governor and other offices, it's the lengthiest in nearly 100 years.

"This very well could have been the first time some people have heard of these," Weigel said of the poll, which she conducted Sept. 10 through Sept. 12.

The findings are based on statewide telephone interviews of registered voters who said they are likely to vote in November. For all questions except Referendum J and Amendment 39, 500 voters were interviewed and there was a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points. For Referendum J and Amendment 39, 250 voters were polled, and the margin of error was plus or minus 6.2 percentage points.

Weigel's firm, Public Opinion Strategies, generally polls for Republican candidates. David Kenney of The Kenney Group, a firm that typically works with Democratic candidates, consulted on the questionnaire and the analysis.

Petition rights

Thirty-nine percent of voters said they favor Amendment 38, which would make it easier for citizens to propose initiatives to appear on local or state ballots. Thirty-two percent said no, while 29 percent said they didn't know or declined to answer, the poll found.

Supporters say the measure would give citizens a greater voice in government, while opponents argue that it would lead to voters deciding more complex issues, sometimes without the thorough and complicated analysis they require.

The biggest obstacle facing the issue, according to Weigel, may be the question itself. At 112 words, it's lengthy and may be difficult for many voters to understand.

Poll participant Tina Dominguez, 29, of Evans, said she definitely will vote in favor of the measure because she thinks elected officials are out of touch and not accountable.

Judicial term limits

Kenney was surprised there wasn't more support for Amendment 40, which would limit state Supreme Court and appellate court judges to terms of 10 years.

Republicans, in particular, have made an issue of "activist judges," and term limits are popular in the West, Kenney said. Yet the measure got support from just 54 percent. Thirty-seven percent said no.

"The fact (support) isn't stronger means it may be vulnerable," Kenney said.

According to the poll, 59 percent of Republicans supported the measure, while 51 percent of Democrats and 50 percent of independent voters said yes.

On Tuesday, a bipartisan group of former governors and Gov. Bill Owens said they oppose the measure because it would discourage top candidates and politicize the courts.

Supporters say it would hold judges accountable and bring new perspectives to the court.

Poll participant Jacquelyn Murray, 66, of Cotopaxi, agreed.

"Fresh thinking and fresh blood might be a good idea," the retired college instructor said. "You get kind of stodgy after you've been there a while."

School funding

Voters are backing a state constitutional amendment on school funding, but it may not be sufficient to withstand a heavy counter attack from education groups, said Weigel.

Amendment 39, which has support from 58 percent of voters and is opposed by 25 percent, requires that 65 percent of school district expenditures occur in the classroom. It is opposed by education groups, which say the 65 percent would not include positions such as principals and counselors, who play important roles in schools.

An attack by those groups could sink the amendment, Weigel said.

"Who do people trust for information or advice? Teachers," Weigel said.

A companion measure, Referendum J, would also require that 65 percent of school funding go directly to education. But Referendum J would not amend the constitution, and it would count numerous positions as part of education, including principals, counselors and school bus workers.

Referendum J is supported by 66 percent of voters and opposed by 21 percent.

Voters supporting Amendment 39 say they believe the measure would help schools.

"I'm a big supporter of education," said Ed Marynowski, 51, of Colorado Springs, who is completing a degree in human resources management at Colorado Christian University. "Any money they can get out of the administration's hands, I'm for."

He does not support Referendum J, saying it doesn't go far enough.

"If (the money) is going for principals, counselors, school buses - forget it. No way, no how," he said.

But Christine Nekl, 54, a Colorado Springs parks and recreation worker, said administrators are part of learning, too.

"If you don't have a good strong administrtion, you have a very poor school," Nekl said.

Reducing the number of buses or drivers would mean longer routes, and some children will spend more time in transit, Nekl said.

Monte Haskell, 62, of Arvada, backs Amendment 39 because he thinks more classroom money means more books and equipment.

Legalizing marijuana

The poll results for Amendment 44 to legalize the possession of one ounce or less of marijuana for persons 21 or older showed it failing 53 percent to 42 percent.

"Predictably, the people pulling for pot are from Denver - 58 percent. It fails everywhere else in the state," Weigel said.

She added that there's also the "laughingstock factor," which means Colorado may not want to be viewed by the nation as the place to go for marijuana.

But a proponent, Kathy Swaim, a 49-year-old nurse, said her mother died of pancreatic cancer at the age of 76, and even though medicinal marijuana laws have been passed, they're not working. Swaim also said marijuana has been unfairly stigmatized.

"I don't know that it's more addictive than alcohol, gambling and cigarettes - and those can destroy lives," said the Democrat from Jefferson County.

But Cindy Thomas, 42, a Republican from Jefferson County, said there's not enough information about recreational use of marijuana to determine whether it would be harmful if used regularly.