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Iraq, the reassessment

Sen. Domenici has a point

Published July 7, 2007 at midnight

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President Bush should heed the advice of Sens. Pete Domenici and Richard Lugar. They're not rabble- rousers. They're not out to embarrass the president or his party; they're Republicans themselves, after all. But the respected senators from New Mexico and Indiana believe the time has come - or almost certainly will come this fall - for a new strategy in Iraq, one that removes most U.S. troops from combat even as it preserves a role for training, counterterrorism and support.

"We cannot continue asking our troops to sacrifice indefinitely while the Iraqi government is not making measurable progress," said Domenici.

By September, when Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker are scheduled to report on the results of this summer's military "surge," it will have been 4 1/2 years since the start of the war. That is not a minor or impulsive military commitment, despite what those who apparently favor an open-ended struggle sometimes seem to suggest.

In the current issue of Time, commentator William Kristol maintains that "a decent outcome - the defeat of al-Qaida in what it has made the central front in the war on terrorism and enough security so there can be peaceful rule by a representative regime - seems to me achievable, if we don't lose our nerve here at home."

Kristol may be right that those outcomes are still achievable, but he shouldn't blame a lack of "nerve" for the fact that a growing percentage of Americans don't share his optimism. It's not nerve they lack. It's evidence - evidence that the Iraqi government is making progress forging a broad coalition capable of pursuing a war against the Islamist enemy and sectarian militias that are hostile to stable, representative authority.

"We've all been, to one degree or another, disappointed in the Iraqi government," Domenici acknowledged Thursday in a notable understatement.

Two months ago, we argued against the attempts of some Democrats to impose a timetable for withdrawal on the Bush administration. That is still the path of folly, as Domenici and Lugar both recognize. It is even possible that the September assessment of Petraeus and Crocker will not support Domenici's conclusion that a new strategy is needed.

Possible, but not likely. Deputy White House press secretary Tony Fratto was certainly not trumpeting any transformation of the war this week. "It is certainly way too early to give any kind of definitive grade on how the surge is doing," he said. "We see hopeful signs of progress. We see hopeful signs of success. We're certainly not in a place to say that the surge has been a success. And we think no one is in a place to say that the surge is not a success either."

After more than four years of corners supposedly turned and light detected at the ends of tunnels, forgive us for doubting that two more months of the surge - or 10 more - will prove decisive. But Petraeus and his troops are getting their chance to prove the skeptics wrong.

Kristol, like most of those advocating that America stay the course, rightly points out that "with success in Iraq, progress elsewhere in the Middle East will be easier." A stable, reasonably tolerant government in the heart of the Arab world that respected the vote and rule of law would indeed be a monumental watershed. Like President Bush, we believe that someday such a country will exist, too.

But if that country is going to be near-term Iraq, its government and tribal and religious leaders must realize that their window of greatest opportunity, as represented by the presence of American combat troops, may start to close as soon as next year - five years, remember, after the start of hostilities. To paraphrase Domenici, Americans cannot ask their troops to sacrifice indefinitely if the Iraqis appear more committed to sectarian domination than to defeating the Islamic radicals in their midst.