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Status quo must go in Lebanon

A ceasefire, but not yet

Published July 22, 2006 at midnight

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Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is getting hammered in some quarters for not having flown immediately to the Middle East once Israel began its offensive against Hezbollah. "The longer she delays the more lives will be lost, and the harder it will be to build a lasting peace," insists The New York Times, one of many voices urging the U.S. to hasten efforts to intervene and engineer a ceasefire.

Yet Rice has not delayed her departure out of some perverse desire to lengthen the odds against ultimate diplomatic success. The Bush administration simply doesn't believe there can be genuine diplomatic progress without changing the facts on the ground - meaning in part that Hezbollah cannot be allowed to re-create its own separate mini-state within southern Lebanon. So Washington supports Israel's attempt to cripple the terrorist group to the extent possible.

Such military work has taken time. A ceasefire that follows a rout of Hezbollah, on the other hand, might permit the deployment of Lebanese as opposed to Hezbollah troops to the country's southern border, with a new international force to assist them.

It's a delicate calculation, of course. As David Ignatius of The Washington Post points out, if the diplomatic timetable is too slow, "Lebanon may be too broken to be put back together anytime soon." But the underlying premise is certainly correct: Genuine peace is impossible so long as southern Lebanon is ruled by an Islamist group operating as a proxy for Iran and Syria.

It so happens that Israel is doing the entire West a favor by attempting to eradicate Hezbollah - a potent force advocating international jihad. Can Israel justify every military target strictly on the basis of its pursuit of Hezbollah? Probably not. On the other hand, consider what the Israeli military is up against, as reported by Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper: "Thousands of Israeli troops are operating in south Lebanon . . . Among their activities, they are searching for tunnels dug by Hezbollah militants. According to the army, Hezbollah fighters have taken refuge inside these tunnels - often dug under homes in villages - along with their rockets, and that they occasionally emerge to fire one into Israel."

In addition, "When the IDF discovers that Hezbollah is firing rockets at Israel from a particular village . . . the army warns the residents to leave the village and then bombs it in an effort to damage Hezbollah's tactical operational capability."

The result, without doubt, is immense suffering for civilians. But they will suffer again in the future if the balance of power within Lebanon is not transformed and Hezbollah's military capability diminished. As Secretary Rice herself said Friday, "A cease-fire would be a false promise if it simply returns us to the status quo."