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NCAR targets bumpy flights

Chris Walsh, Rocky Mountain News

Published September 11, 2007 at midnight

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Every flier has experienced it: The sudden jerk of the plane, the creak and rattle of the overhead bins, the sweat-inducing drop in altitude.

Turbulence during flights is often as common as, well, taking off and landing. And it's more than just an annoyance, contributing to flight delays, boosting costs for airlines and factoring in numerous accidents and injuries over the years.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder is looking to minimize such disruptions and delays and save airlines money through a new system that provides updated snapshots of turbulence across the country.

The goal is to pinpoint areas of turbulence in clouds, allowing pilots to efficiently reroute flights to avoid rough patches.

The system, currently being tested by United Airlines, uses the nation's network of Nexrad ground-based radars to gather information on precipitation and cloud density. It also measures wind gusts within clouds.

A software program then filters out information that can distort the data - such as flying insects and birds - and creates a three-dimensional map of turbulence for a given area.

"What we're doing that's really new is applying artificial intelligence to get rid of data that contaminate the measurements," said John Williams, a scientist with NCAR. "The idea is to mimic how a human expert would look at the information. Our hope is that it will help reduce unnecessary delays and diversions and guarantee passenger safety and comfort."

NCAR's system plots the severity of turbulence 100 miles ahead and 40 miles to either side of a particular plane.

A huge advantage is that pilots can receive the information in the cockpit every five minutes, allowing them to make real-time decisions.

"Turbulence associated with thunderstorms is really dynamic and changes very quickly," Williams said. "Getting that information to pilots in the cockpit is absolutely essential."

NCAR is using 83 of the Nexrad Doppler weather radars, covering air space in Denver and east of the Rockies. It plans to officially roll out the system across the United States by 2011.

Current technology forecasts only certain kinds of turbulence, such as air disruptions caused by jet streams.

It can't, however, accurately determine or forecast turbulence resulting from thunderstorms - which NCAR estimates make up two-thirds of reported encounters.

So airlines and private pilots can follow Federal Aviation Administration recommendations, avoiding thunderstorms by at least 20 miles. That means pilots often go farther out of their way than necessary, burning more fuel and adding to the total travel time.

"By pinpointing where turbulence is, pilots can fly more efficient routes around it," Williams said. "We think airline pilots, dispatchers and air traffic controllers could use it as well as everyday general aviation pilots."

United has been testing the technology in the skies this year. The carrier, Denver's largest, said early results are "all positive."

"This takes the guesswork out of it," said Joe Burns, United's managing director of flight standards and technology in Denver. "This allows us to plot the smoothest route for passengers."

NCAR is providing the system to United for free, although the carrier incurs a small communications fee for each update sent to pilots. United said it plans to use the technology across its fleet when NCAR unrolls it nationwide.

Other carriers, including Denver-based Frontier Airlines, have expressed interest as well.

Frontier is developing its own system that graphically depicts occurrences of turbulence its planes have reported. But it sees the NCAR system as "a complementary solution," said Frontier pilot Janet Elliott.

"We're already talking to them about this," she said.

The FAA is funding development of the system, which has cost an estimated $2 million so far. The system still must receive FAA approval, which can be an arduous task.

"I think there are still some organizational details to be established," Williams said. "And we'll have to demonstrate concretely that this product satisfies the FAA's requirements. But we've done this kind of thing before with many other products."

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